Research
December 11, 2024

Menu Prices

Growth in menu prices slowed in recent months, as overall inflation remained sticky

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in November, which was in line with expectations but marked the strongest monthly increase since April. On a year-over-year basis, overall consumer prices were up 2.7%. That was the largest 12-month increase since July (2.9%).  

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices rose 0.3% for the fourth consecutive month in November. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation held steady at 3.3% for the third straight month.  

With inflation readings coming in as expected in November, this makes it likely that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut the federal funds rate by an additional 25 basis points during its December 17–18 meeting. That would follow cuts of 75 basis points during the September and November meetings.


Menu prices rose 3.6% during the last 12 months

Menu-price growth slowed in recent months, but remained above gains in both grocery store prices and the overall CPI. The Consumer Price Index for Food Away from Home increased 3.6% between November 2023 and November 2024. That marked the smallest 12-month gain since August 2020, and was well below the recent peak increase of 8.8% in the 12 months ending March 2023. 

The Consumer Price Index for Food at Home rose 1.6% between November 2023 and November 2024, which marked the largest 12-month increase in a year. Despite the recent uptick, grocery price inflation remained well below the decades-high growth rates of more than 13% during 2022.


Within the food-away-from-home sector, growth in limited-service menu prices continues to outpace the fullservice segment, but the gap closed in recent months. 

Limited-service menu prices increased 3.7% between November 2023 and November 2024, which represented the smallest 12-month gain since May 2020. Fullservice menu prices stood 3.6% above year-ago levels, which represented the 10th consecutive month with 12-month gains below 4%.


Elsewhere in the food-away-from-home sector, the price index for food at employee sites and schools increased 3.5% between November 2023 and November 2024. Meanwhile, the price index for food from vending machines and mobile vendors rose just 0.5% during the last 12 months. Both readings were significantly down from the double-digit gains posted in 2022 and 2023.


On a regional level, the West (4.6%) region registered the strongest menu price growth between November 2023 and November 2024. Menu-price growth in the Northeast (3.5%), South (3.4%) and Midwest (2.9%) regions remained below the national average in recent months.