New Census Outlook Survey Shows Challenging Conditions for Restaurant Operators
The U.S. Census Bureau has introduced an experimental data set, the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS). This relatively new series “consists of approximately 1.2 million businesses split into six panels (approximately 200,000 cases per panel). Businesses in each panel will be asked to report once every 12 weeks for a year.” New data are released every other week, starting late last year through the present. This large sample of respondents includes restaurants, providing another data point to assess the health of the sector.
Similar to recent trends in the Restaurant Performance Index, the BTOS shows that conditions are challenging for eating and drinking places. While 51.4% of restaurants operators suggest that their business’s current performance is average in the latest survey (the 16th biweekly period in 2024), 30.7% suggest that conditions are either below average or poor while 18.0% feel that they are either above average or excellent. Moreover, those who were above average or excellent has slipped from 24.2% saying the same thing at the end of 2023, with 27.3% citing below average or poor conditions in the final survey of last years.
The result is that many of the key indices for the eating and drinking places sector have remained consistently below the key threshold of 50, reflecting more negative than positive sentiment. It is notable that restaurant operators began 2024 on a solidly negative note—including for revenues, employment, hours and demand—but conditions have stabilized somewhat since then, albeit still weaker than desired. In addition, the rate of decline lessened somewhat between the 15th and 16th biweekly survey for 2024.
While this might be disconcerting, one could also frame this more positively. In the latest survey, those restaurants feeling that their current performance was average, above average, or excellent totaled 69.4%. This perhaps suggests more resilience than not, even if conditions are weaker than ideal.
The future-oriented indices highlight the challenging expectations of respondents in the eating and drinking places sector for the next six months, with each of the key measures trending lower year to date.
The National Restaurant Association will continue to monitor this new experimental data set, providing insights on upcoming trends in the restaurant sector in this exciting survey development.
Track more economic indicators and read more analysis and commentary from the Association's economists.
More from Association's economists:
More from the Association's economists:
-
Research
Total restaurant industry jobs
July 02, 2026Restaurant job growth was choppy during the first half of 2026 -
Research
Total U.S. jobs
July 02, 2026U.S. labor market growth softened in June, as labor participation drops sharply -
Research
Restaurant Job Openings
June 30, 2026Restaurant and lodging job openings rose in May -
Research
2026 Summer Travel & Dining report: Key trends shaping restaurant demand
June 30, 2026The National Restaurant Association’s newly released 2026 Summer Tourism & Dining report: Key Trends Shaping Restaurant Demand delivers timely insights into how consumers plan to travel, dine, entertain, and spend their discretionary income this summer.
-
Research
Same-store sales and customer traffic
June 29, 2026Restaurant operators reported mixed sales and traffic readings in May -
Research
GDP
June 25, 2026U.S. economy grew modestly in Q1, up 2.1%, despite signs of consumer cautiousness -
Research
PCE Deflator
June 25, 2026Hospitality spending was flat in May despite resilience in purchasing and higher inflation -
Research
Restaurants projected to add 450k seasonal jobs this summer
June 24, 2026A decline in the restaurant industry’s prime labor pool may make hiring more challenging this summer. -
Research
Consumer confidence
June 18, 2026Consumers are weathering the storm of high gas prices -
Advocacy
Letter to Congress on Hemp-Derived THC Beverages
June 17, 2026The Association supports a regulated market for hemp-derived THC beverages for consumption at restaurants—one built on clear federal standards covering age verification, production and quality assurances, marketing and labeling requirements, dosing disclosures, and operationalizable impairment standards.
-
Research
Restaurants projected to add 450k seasonal jobs this summer
June 24, 2026A decline in the restaurant industry’s prime labor pool may make hiring more challenging this summer. -
Research
New NRA Survey: Restaurants Stay a Priority as Financial Strains Challenge Spending
June 02, 2026This post summarizes the Q2 2026 Quarterly Consumer Insights Survey from the National Restaurant Association, showing both resilience and caution amid economic uncertainties. Thankfully, consumers continue to prioritize going out to eat even as they cut back in other spending categories. -
Research
GLP-1 and Restaurants: Shifting Habits, Not Shrinking Demand
May 20, 2026Restaurants remain deeply embedded in the lifestyles of GLP-1 users