New Census Outlook Survey Shows Challenging Conditions for Restaurant Operators
The U.S. Census Bureau has introduced an experimental data set, the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS). This relatively new series “consists of approximately 1.2 million businesses split into six panels (approximately 200,000 cases per panel). Businesses in each panel will be asked to report once every 12 weeks for a year.” New data are released every other week, starting late last year through the present. This large sample of respondents includes restaurants, providing another data point to assess the health of the sector.
Similar to recent trends in the Restaurant Performance Index, the BTOS shows that conditions are challenging for eating and drinking places. While 51.4% of restaurants operators suggest that their business’s current performance is average in the latest survey (the 16th biweekly period in 2024), 30.7% suggest that conditions are either below average or poor while 18.0% feel that they are either above average or excellent. Moreover, those who were above average or excellent has slipped from 24.2% saying the same thing at the end of 2023, with 27.3% citing below average or poor conditions in the final survey of last years.
The result is that many of the key indices for the eating and drinking places sector have remained consistently below the key threshold of 50, reflecting more negative than positive sentiment. It is notable that restaurant operators began 2024 on a solidly negative note—including for revenues, employment, hours and demand—but conditions have stabilized somewhat since then, albeit still weaker than desired. In addition, the rate of decline lessened somewhat between the 15th and 16th biweekly survey for 2024.
While this might be disconcerting, one could also frame this more positively. In the latest survey, those restaurants feeling that their current performance was average, above average, or excellent totaled 69.4%. This perhaps suggests more resilience than not, even if conditions are weaker than ideal.
The future-oriented indices highlight the challenging expectations of respondents in the eating and drinking places sector for the next six months, with each of the key measures trending lower year to date.
The National Restaurant Association will continue to monitor this new experimental data set, providing insights on upcoming trends in the restaurant sector in this exciting survey development.
Track more economic indicators and read more analysis and commentary from the Association's economists.
More from Association's economists:
More from the Association's economists:
-
Articles
Paying your team: Payroll system must-haves
March 27, 2025Ask the right questions before you commit to a restaurant payroll software. -
Research
GDP
March 27, 2025Consumer Spending Expanded Solidly in the Fourth Quarter, Lifting GDP Growth
-
Advocacy
Just the Facts on CCCA
March 26, 2025Get the facts about how the Credit Card Competition Act would lower swipe fees. -
Advocacy
Credit Card Competition Act Policy Brief
March 26, 2025Credit card processing fees have more than doubled over the past decade, and nearly 20% in the last year. -
Research
Consumer outlook
March 25, 2025Consumers are becoming more uneasy about the economy, even as the underlying fundamentals remain generally positive. -
Research
Economic outlook
March 25, 2025Consumers hold the key to economic resilience in 2025. -
Articles
Commodities corner: Higher prices require operator flexibility
March 20, 2025As operators brace for continued price hikes, analyst Bill Lapp looks at the lay of the land. -
Research
Monetary Policy
March 19, 2025Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady, Maintains Cautious Stance on Inflation
-
Articles
Report: Workforce technology amps up hiring, performance
March 19, 2025Restaurants are keen to embrace AI, automation and analytics to improve operations. -
Research
Total restaurant industry sales
March 17, 2025Restaurant Sales Fell 1.5% in February After Being Flat in January
-
Research
Imports Jump to Record High in January in Anticipation of New Tariffs
March 06, 2025The U.S. trade deficit soared in January, likely on front-loading of possible tariffs. -
Research
Cost of Living Comparisons Around the Country for 2023
December 13, 2024Regional price parity indices can be helpful in assessing cost-of-living differences around the country. -
Research
Overview of Food and Beverage Commodity Imports from Canada, Mexico and China
November 26, 2024Overview of Food and Beverage Commodity Imports from Canada, Mexico and China