Census Survey Affirms: Extreme Weather Causes Major Disruptions for Restaurants

The U.S. Census Bureau has introduced an experimental data set, the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS). This relatively new series “consists of approximately 1.2 million businesses split into six panels (approximately 200,000 cases per panel). Businesses in each panel are asked to report once every 12 weeks for a year. New data are released every other week, starting late last year. This large sample of respondents includes restaurants, providing another data point to assess the health of the sector. In August, this blog discussed the outlook measures.

The data from BTOS provides a meaningful lens into the ongoing challenges and resilience exhibited by the foodservice industry in the face of extreme weather events. Since the survey's inception in September 2023, an average of 15.6% of eating and drinking establishments reported monetary losses linked to extreme weather occurrences within a rolling six-month window.

Early 2024 saw the prevalence of severe winter storms, with mid-January experiencing a peak in responses, as 25.3% of establishments cited financial impacts from harsh conditions. The more recent devastation wrought by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in September and October exemplifies how climate risks are increasingly influencing economic stability in this sector. For the October 7–20 period, or Survey 21 in 2024, nearly 19% of eating and drinking places reported monetary losses due to extreme weather. This data underscores the persistent and complex challenges restaurant operators face as they navigate climate-related disruptions.
A deeper dive into the survey data for the October 7–20 period reveals that the agriculture sector bore the brunt of extreme weather impacts, with 26.2% of respondents citing monetary losses during this two-week window. Closely trailing behind, the accommodation and food services sector saw 19.1% of businesses report similar financial setbacks. As such, these data highlight the extensive toll weather-related disruptions can have on the hospitality industry, affecting employees, customers, and supply chains alike.
Additionally, states in the Southeastern U.S. experienced the most severe weather impacts during the October 7–20 survey period, a trend consistent with the trajectory of recent hurricanes. Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina were among the states facing the greatest challenges. Notably, Florida and South Carolina stood out, with roughly one-third or more of businesses in each state reporting monetary losses due to extreme weather over the prior six months.