Restaurant Sales Estimated to Have Risen by 0.5% in September

Due to the ongoing government shutdown, the U.S. Census Bureau has delayed the release of September’s retail sales data, which was originally scheduled to be published today. In the absence of official figures, the National Restaurant Association has developed a macroeconomic model to estimate sales at eating and drinking places for the month.

Based on this model, we project that nominal restaurant sales increased by approximately 0.5% in September.

The model employs a linear regression framework, using several key economic indicators as explanatory variables. These include:

• The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index for Customer Traffic
• Menu prices
• Real disposable personal income
• Personal savings rate
• Unemployment rate
• A post-pandemic era dummy variable to account for structural shifts in consumer behavior
• A time series variable

This approach provides a timely and data-driven estimate of restaurant industry performance while we await the release of official government statistics. As illustrated in the graph below, the model explains 99.5% of the variation in retail sales at eating and drinking places.

Using this model, we incorporate estimates for each explanatory variable to generate a predicted value for September sales. In August, sales at eating and drinking places totaled $99.52 billion. A projected increase of 0.5% suggests that September sales would be approximately $100.00 billion.