Real restaurant sales remained flat in recent months

Total restaurant sales trended higher in recent months, though essentially all of that growth can be attributed to rising menu prices. 

Eating and drinking places* registered total sales of $73.7 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau. That followed upward-revised sales readings of $72.8 billion in September and $73.0 billion in October. 

Despite the positive topline trend, real sales were actually down in recent months.

Eating and drinking place sales were up 2.3% between July and November. During the same 4-month period, menu prices increased 2.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

As a result, real eating and drinking place sales – an indication of customer traffic levels – declined 0.1% between July and November.

Pent-up demand for dining out remains elevated

Prior to the pandemic in January 2020, 45% of consumers said they were not using restaurants as often as they would like for either on-premises dining or takeout and delivery. By April 2020, this shot up to 83% for on-premises dining, as consumers clearly missed what they could not have.  

After trending steadily lower during the first year of the pandemic as the industry reopened, consumers’ pent-up demand for restaurants levelled off in recent months. As of early December 2021, 51% of adults say they are currently not eating at restaurants as often as they would like. That’s 6 percentage points higher than the 45% of consumers who reported similarly in January 2020 before the pandemic.  

On the off-premises side, 37% of adults say they are currently not ordering takeout or delivery from restaurants as often as they would like. That’s 7 percentage points below the January 2020 level, which illustrates the extent to which the added off-premises options have been integrated into consumers’ daily lives during the pandemic.

Looking inside the numbers, older consumers are more likely to want to increase frequency – for both on-premises and off-premises. Fifty-nine percent of baby boomers and 55% of Gen Xers say they are currently not eating on premises at restaurants as often as they would like. More than 4 in 10 consumers in these age groups say they are not using takeout or delivery as frequently as they would like.

*Eating and drinking places are the primary component of the U.S. restaurant and foodservice industry, which prior to the coronavirus outbreak generated approximately 75 percent of total restaurant and foodservice sales.

Read more analysis and commentary from the Association's chief economist Bruce Grindy.