Home / News & Media / Media Center / Press Releases / Like Polling Data, Modeling Data Has Inherent Limitations When Predicting Outcomes
Overview
The results of a recent modeling exercise, to be published in the journal Nature, were designed to illustrate health disparities and evaluate the disparate impact of reopening restaurants on economically disadvantaged groups.
Instead, the project created an ill-advised correlation between the exercise and the risk of dining at restaurants. Like polling data, modeling data cannot reliably be used to draw definitive conclusions about the actions of a group of people or determine outcomes.
The model used anonymized data from mobile applications to study mobility patterns from March through May 2020. Researchers used this approach to study the mechanism behind disparities and to quantify how different reopening strategies impact disadvantaged groups.
Due to the complexities of the real world, predictive models are inherently fraught with error even under the best of circumstances. In this case, the researchers' model seems to fit their data, so they conclude that it is reasonably accurate. However, this is not enough to assert that restaurants are a significant source of risk across the entire United States.
Statement on “Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening”
The National Restaurant Association has identified numerous concerns with the accuracy of the model and the determinations contained in the final report, including the following:
We would not dispute the researchers’ conclusions that disadvantaged individuals had higher mobility during the research period and therefore may have been at higher risk of contracting SARS CoV-2. However, absent contact tracing and public health data determining who among the groups actually contracted the virus and without a higher level of specificity to where they contracted it, using a modeling exercise with anonymized location data pulled from mobile devices is not an acceptable way to determine that restaurants were a likely cause for virus transmission.
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Founded in 1919, the National Restaurant Association is the leading business association for the restaurant industry, which comprises 1 million restaurant and foodservice outlets and a workforce of 15.6 million employees. We represent the industry in Washington, D.C., and advocate on its behalf. We sponsor the industry's largest trade show (National Restaurant Association Show); leading food safety training and certification program (ServSafe); unique career-building high school program (the NRAEF's ProStart). For more information, visit Restaurant.org and find us on Twitter @WeRRestaurants, Facebook and YouTube.
Contact: Vanessa Sink (202) 331-5900