What is pandemic flu?

Pandemic flu is a highly contagious human flu that causes a global outbreak, or a pandemic, of serious illness. Because the strain of a disease is usually new, people have little natural immunity allowing the infection to sicken people easily. Pandemic flu viruses are rare but have occurred. There have been three flu pandemics in the last century. Currently, there is no pandemic flu.

What causes pandemic flu?

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), a “human influenza virus” usually refers to those strains of influenza that spread widely among humans. So far, the spread of the avian flu virus from person to person has been limited and has not continued beyond one person.

Nonetheless, because all influenza viruses have the ability to change, scientists are concerned that the avian flu virus could one day be able to infect humans and spread easily from one person to another.

What are the chances of a flu pandemic?

The strain of flu currently affecting mostly Asian countries is one of the few avian flu viruses able to infect humans, and it is the most deadly of those that can do so. Because all influenza viruses have the ability to change, scientists are concerned that the avian flu virus one day could mutate to a form that could easily spread from person to person, creating a pandemic.

Many scientists believe it is a matter of time until the next influenza pandemic occurs. However, the timing and severity of the next pandemic cannot be predicted. Influenza pandemics have occurred three times in the past century—in 1918-19, 1957-58 and 1968-69. Global time and resources are being geared toward preventing and eradicating the virus in birds in order to prevent or minimize its occurrence and reduce the risk of a global pandemic.

If there is a pandemic, how many people will become sick?

Based on historical data, the federal government estimates that if a pandemic strain were to develop, 30 percent of the population or approximately 90 million people will become sick. However, that number may change depending on if and how the virus mutates to spread between people.

What would be the impact of a pandemic?

A pandemic may come and go in waves, each of which can last for six to eight weeks. An especially severe influenza pandemic could lead to high levels of illness, death, social disruption and economic loss. Impacts can range from school and business closings to the interruption of basic services such as public transportation and food delivery. The effects of a pandemic can be lessened if preparations are made ahead of time.

The U.S. government is providing funding, advice and other support to states to assist with pandemic planning and preparation. This information is available at www.pandemicflu.gov. Many in the private sector, including the foodservice area, are developing continuity-of-operations planning to prepare for the possibility of a flu pandemic.

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